By choosing tennis as your preferred sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against those who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To make use of this “edge” to earn money consistently, however, you’ll need to comprehend two fundamental principles first. Then apply the ability of mathematics.
It’s sheer folly to place a golf bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you merely cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” from the punter is required for him to make a profit so that he can stay static in business.
Computer technology has given rise to a fresh kind of betting, referred to as “exchange betting” or “matched betting” ;.With “betting exchanges” there’s no bookie to beat; in other words, there’s no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere on the market in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can decide to behave being an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.
With exchange betting the odds are not set by way of a third-party or middle-man; they’re set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds of which they’re prepared to place bets (if they wish to behave being an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds of which they’re ready to lay bets (if they wish to behave as a bookmaker).
While the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the application on the exchange betting site matches all the trunk bets with all the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited with their winnings automatically a couple of seconds after the end of the big event in accordance with its result.
Obviously, the technology for providing such a “fair” betting service must certanly be covered somehow. This payment is taken in the proper execution of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses for a passing fancy event.
You will find hardly any betting exchanges in existence, however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is really complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting the websites is Betfair, with about 90% of the market during the time of writing. Others will be the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is undoubtedly the most popular because it absolutely was the first to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to do accurately and instantly.
So, why does tennis betting offer you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The clear answer, though simple, is often overlooked even by those who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not need realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.
In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team will then win the 2nd set by the absolute most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by hardly any points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).
This anomaly often has a profound psychological effect on one or both sides, which affects the direction they play for the following short while, and therefore also the betting odds requested and provided by punters on the match. This, however, is another aspect of tennis betting which might be the main topic of another article. This informative article deals with the mathematical aspect of tennis betting and how exactly to win money with this knowledge.
The key is to not be just a “backer” or even a “layer”, simply betting on the ultimate outcome of an event. If you do that, you’ll lose out over time, because there’s always a small difference between the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there must be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for everyone to supply odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you spend in your net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it’s not as great as with conventional bookmakers).
The key to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting site from the standard bookie. At the betting exchange you are able to place a back or lay bet at any time during the big event, right up until the last second or the ultimate point. This is known as “in-play” betting.
Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for every single opposing side change as the big event progresses, in line with the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of just one side or one other being the eventual winner. The secret is to place a back bet on one side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a back bet on one other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you’ll win your bet overall, regardless of outcome of the big event — a true “win-win” scenario.
Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?
Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is fantastic for such “swing” betting, because the odds fluctuate after each and every point is played. You will find therefore very many small swings to at least one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, as an example, because goals are very rare and a goal shifts the bonus suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.
The more possible outcomes there are to factor to the equation, the more challenging it’s to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain both most widely used sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact it now is easier to earn money betting on tennis than on some other sport.)
Earlier it absolutely was stated that the trick to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the big event, placing bets at แทงไก่ชน different occuring times during the big event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be carried out with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.
One method combined with in-play betting is called “scalping” ;.As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a tiny profit by backing or laying at precisely the right moment while the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores 2 or 3 consecutive points, and repeating the process again and again. The greatest drawback of scalping is that it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you spend full focus on what’s happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you must also catch precisely the right moments of which to bet, which can be, in reality, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the full time you set the bet and the full time it’s accepted.
Mathematics don’t lie!
There are always a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using applications, some that are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), all of them require the input, sooner or later, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is usually the odds at that you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.
So, how do you determine the worth of the probability factor? That, dear reader, could be the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines if it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
Up to now, it appears, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer connection with a couple of seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or don’t win around they could because they do not know the EXACT value needed seriously to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, to be able to maximize the likelihood of winning consistently. A research on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one which encompasses not only all facets of exchange betting but in addition the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and named it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of an improved name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to create consistently a lot more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.